Close monitoring of the IIEG:
Beyond Western Sahara, towards "Eastern Sahara" The Conflict Resolution Unit of the IIEG has been following the Moroccan Sahara issue very closely for several years. This attention is explained by the fact that the issue now goes beyond the framework of a territorial dispute: it concerns the geostrategic balances of the Maghreb, the security of the Sahel and Mediterranean cooperation in the face of hybrid threats (traffic, migration, non-state armed networks). The IIEG also observes that resolution 2797 initiates a new geometry of negotiations, where regional actors (Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania) could be led to redefine their zones of influence and their economic interactions. In this logic, the next phase - already mentioned by certain diplomats - could concern the "Eastern Sahara", that is to say the border areas between the Moroccan south-east and the Algerian west. This perspective is explained by two complementary dynamics: the need to clarify the spaces for cross-border cooperation, particularly around economic and energy corridors, and the desire of the United States and their Arab partners to build an integrated stability of the Maghreb, which leaves no gray area conducive to tensions or to trafficking. This development would mark a new stage in the overall resolution of territorial and security issues in the Maghreb, transforming the Sahara issue from a frozen conflict into a catalyst for deep regional integration.
A diplomatic turning point confirmed by resolution 2797The adoption of resolution 2797 of the United Nations Security Council [1]
October 31, 2025, marks a historic turning point in the UN approach to the Sahara issue. The text, supported by a large majority of Council members (11 votes in favor, 3 abstentions), introduces a more pragmatic tone and reinforces the recognition of the Moroccan autonomy plan (2007) as a realistic and sustainable political basis for a negotiated solution. This resolution is a continuation of the American position reaffirmed since 2020, but it now broadens the scope by placing the Sahara issue within the broader framework of Maghreb and Sahelo-Mediterranean regional stability. It thus opens a new political phase, where the Sahara question goes beyond its territorial dimension to become an issue of regional governance and security cooperation. The resolution also puts an end to a persistent ambiguity by explicitly recognizing Algeria as a stakeholder in the process, and no longer as a simple "neighboring state". This recognition breaks with previous diplomatic rhetoric and endorses a reading geopolitics of the conflict based on direct regional responsibility.
The pivotal role of Massad Boulos, of Lebanese origin: discreet architect of a transatlantic and Arab consensus
The American Special Advisor for Africa and the Middle East, Massad Boulos, of Lebanese origin, established himself as the discreet but essential architect of the diplomatic consensus which made possible the adoption of resolution 2797. A businessman and political strategist close to the Trump administration, Boulos stands out for his unique ability to forge bridges between Washington, Rabat and several influential Arab capitals, notably Cairo, Abu Dhabi and Algiers. In his interview granted to France 24 Arabic on November 3, 2025, Boulos forcefully reaffirmed that the Moroccan autonomy plan constitutes the only credible basis for a just and lasting outcome [2]. But beyond this position of principle, his action reflects a strategic desire to restructure the Maghreb dialogue around an axis of Morocco-United States-Arab League trust, in which Algeria would be invited to play a constructive rather than oppositional role. The IIEG notes that the mediation carried out by Boulos adopts a hybrid approach, combining classic diplomacy (bilateral talks, coordination with the UN) and influential diplomacy (economic networks, security cooperation, moderate religious dialogue). This atypical profile, coming from the business world and Middle Eastern networks, makes him the real architect of the current convergence between Washington and Rabat on this issue. His visit to Algiers in July 2025 testifies to this desire to open channels of dialogue with all regional actors [3].
Towards a phase of consolidation and adaptation
According to the observations of the IIEG, the "next step" of the file, after resolution 2797, should therefore combine three strategic axes: The submission by Morocco of an updated autonomy plan, integrating modernized local governance mechanisms, international guarantees and a clear agenda for the participation of local populations. This update would make it possible to concretely translate diplomatic progress into operational institutional mechanisms. A relaunch of the Morocco-Algeria bilateral dialogue, encouraged by Washington and supported by the Arab League, in order to reduce the conflictual dimension and open up a space for pragmatic cooperation. The role of Massad Boulos in this regional mediation will be decisive in creating the conditions for a constructive dialogue. Regional coherence, including questions of energy security, infrastructure and common management of border areas (the "Eastern Sahara"), as levers of lasting stability. The region's integration into the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, the African Atlantic Route and the green hydrogen corridors positions the Kingdom as an energy and logistics interface between Africa and Europe.
The European Union at a crossroads
The European Union, Morocco's major economic and political partner, now finds itself at a strategic crossroads. The cautious neutrality which until now characterized its position is becoming difficult to maintain in light of the new UN legal architecture. Ignoring resolution 2797 would amount to weakening its own credibility in terms of respect for multilateralism [4]. A political revision is therefore necessary: align European foreign policy with resolution 2797, in the name of strategic coherence and respect for Security Council decisions. This clarification would strengthen Euro-African collective security, by consolidating the basis of political trust necessary for lasting cooperation in the areas of the fight against terrorism, the management of migratory flows and the energy transition.
To summarize:
Towards a model of Maghrebi resolution The IIEG believes that resolution 2797 and the dynamic it sets in motion could constitute a diplomatic precedent: that of a predominantly regional conflict resolution, supported by a coalition of powers (United States, Arab partners, European Union) but articulated around a central local actor - in this case, the Kingdom of Morocco. This "bottom-up" approach, centered on realism and cooperation, marks the end of the status quo logic and opens a phase where Maghreb diplomacy could once again become the driving force behind a new African geopolitical balance. As IIEG President Khaled Hamadé pointed out on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Green March: “Courage is not to perpetuate conflicts, but to dare to resolve them. Morocco showed the way fifty years ago. It is time for the world to accompany it on this path.” [5]References[1]United Nations Security Council. (2025, October 31). With 11 votes in favor and 3 abstentions, the Security Council adopts resolution 2797 (2025), renewing the mandate of the UN Mission in Western Sahara for one year.
https://press.un.org/en/2025/sc16208.doc.htm[2] Boulos, M. (2025, November 3).Interview with France 24 Arabic.[3]Middle East Institute. (2025, November 6). Morocco-Algeria: The case for ambitious reconciliation.
https://mei.edu/publications/morocco-algeria-case-ambitious-reconciliation[4]Conflict Analysis and Resolution Unit. (2025, November 4). Moroccan Sahara: the new UN resolution places the European Union at a strategic crossroads. International Institute of Geopolitical Studies.
https://institugeo.org/articles/Moroccan-sahara-the-new-resolution-of-lonu-place-lunion-europeenne-a-un-strategic-crossroads/[5] Hamadé, K. (2025, October 24). For lasting peace: 50th anniversary of the Green March and appeal to the international community. International Institute of Geopolitical Studies.
https://institugeo.org/articles/for-a-sustainable-peace-50th-anniversary-of-the-green-march-and-call-to-the-international-community/
